Belene project has an economic assessment

Dzhuritsa Tankosich, senior vice president of WorleyParsons, the newspaper Novinar

Since the beginning of the election campaign for European Parliament in May Belene NPP unswervingly the agenda of the speeches of politicians, experts of all media, forums, blogs. Passions about this project incandesce increasingly, public space is full of attacks the project. „Each step in the development of Belene NPP project and the process of decision-making are supported by detailed technical and financial analysis with realistic assumptions and a positive opinion from the European Commission, said in an interview published Novinar Dzhuritsa Tankosich, senior vice president of WorleyParsons – the company of architect-engineer the project for Belene NPP.
Dzhuritsa Tankosich is 55 years. He graduated from the „Atomic Energy and Electrical Engineering in Belgrade University. He was the first nuclear power plant in Slovenia, which at that time was within the former Yugoslavia and Serbia in the first nuclear power plant, nuclear power plant in the U.S. company Bechtel in San Francisco. In 1994 he came to Bulgaria and made the first feasibility study for „Heat Sofia. Parsons & B, Bulgaria and is a consultant to the Kozloduy nuclear power plant project to modernize and 5-and 6-and block. The company controls the rehabilitation of Maritsa East 2 and is an engineer-architect of the project for construction of Belene NPP. Recently, Parsons and his Bulgarian End „was selected as a consultant and the project for construction of NPP Mochovce.
Mr. Tankosich, what is the opinion of the engineer WorleyParsons arhitekt the current situation about Belene NPP?
Dzhuritsa Tankosich:
Nothing new under the sun. Attempts to purposeful change in social
sentiments have existed since biblical times and are far from Bulgarian.
The timing of elections and political change layers provide extremely
rich soil for the flourishing of different those after repeated
replication make public to doubt everything spoken so ago.
But we prefer the language of engineers and the precise facts and figures to
metaphorical statements.
Let’s start with a broad discussion of the lack of economic justification
Project …
Dzhuritsa Tankosich:
I know that will disappoint fans of sensation, but such an assessment exists
when this is done repeatedly for each new stage of project development
with the necessary technological engineering, licensing, economic, financial,
construction and others. analysis and documentation in accordance with the requirements of
Bulgarian legislation, guidelines of the IAEA and the world practice in
construction of new nuclear power stations. Not just made such assessments, but they
volume exceeding the standard worldwide.
It was first carried out a comparative analysis of razlichniteenergoproizvoditelni technologies (gas, domestic and imported coal, nuclear fuel), as part of pre-feasibility study, whose results were
presented to the media in 2004 and open public debate based on
which in April 2005 government decision was taken to build
Belene NPP. In 2006, following an analysis of five different options and variations
proposals from the Skoda Alliance / Westinghouse (representing manufacturers of
Škoda nuclear technology, and several other Uestinghauz Czech engineering
companies) and the Alliance Atomstroyeskport / Areva (representing leading Russian
European manufacturers and producers through the Franco-Germany Consortium
of Areva and Siemens). This study included an additional probabilistic
analysis of risks in the implementation of the various options in the quantitative
indicators and determining their impact on the average price of
electricity. For the first time in world practice, such an integrated analysis
made at this early stage. Subsequently, the experience of the project for Belene NPP was
applied very successfully by WorleyParsons to projects in the USA, Czechia and Slovakia.
Also in 2006 was made a separate financial and legal analysis for structuring
project and plan for its realization. In January-April 2008 developed a new
„banking“ model project „Belene“ which reflects the financial work
concept for the project to date. In January 2009 the new base model
project update scheme for payment under the contract for engineering, procurement,
Construction (IDS), whose base is preparing 4 new scenarios to the financial
model, including minimum and maximum version of the budget of the project
Depending on the escalation of the IDS contract. All these tests demonstrate
positive economic characteristics of the project, which explains the large
investor interest in the contest to choose a strategic investor.
Under the new energy minister „to the capital costs of Belene NPP
should be added operational, to see what will be the real value of
price of electricity produced and whether there will be a market for it …
Dzhuritsa Tankosich:
Of course, this is a strong logic of each investment project and exactly
Thus, it is evaluated and „Belene“ more of a stage feasibility studies and
any subsequent update of the analysis. Our model for financial assessment
project also includes capital expenditures and funds for operation and maintenance
(staff and costs), fuel costs and its utilization for the removal of
operation of the plant, management and storage of radioactive
waste and provided funds for possible improvements. Are reported
possible sources of funding. The main parameters in our detailed
financial model are the total project cost, availability of equipment
parameters and operating life of the plant. In economic analysis, we
reported the influence of so-called „side factors, such as the effect of investment
on human health, impact on crops, the comfort of the population
ecosystem, global warming, ie all that is required under generally accepted
global methodologies and specialized methods of analysis of IAEA
economic performance of modern construction projects of nuclear
blocks. Has been made and further parallel with the verification of results
specialized software IAEA BidEval 3.0.
Results indicate that the energy of the Belene NPP with estimates between 4.5 and 5.5 cents
KWh to be competitive against the alternatives – from 4.1 to 4.3 cents per KWh
hydropower in the price of energy from power plants, to which must be added
another 5.7 – 8.6 cents per KWh in introducing the technology to capture CO2 and
cent to 46.7 KWh for solar energy.
Therefore fully support the Minister Traykov that the fate of the Belene NPP is
determined not to „accounts on one knee, but with the most accurate analysis. And I’m calm, because in
entire history of the development project with any of our analysis, we bring together the experience
of similar studies, gained through years of development of nuclear energy worldwide. The team that made the economic evaluation of tenders
WorleyParsons included experts from USA, Italy, Czechia, Spain and Russia.
Were attracted leading experts from Finland, an economic
project evaluation for their new nuclear power plant in Olkiluoto.
WorleyParsons is what experience in the implementation of projects for new nuclear
capacity?
Dzhuritsa Tankosich:
WorleyParsons is a global corporation with nearly 32 000 employees and
international business management from 114 offices worldwide. We have almost 50 years
experience in nuclear energy and we have participated in the design of 18 NPPs in America
Asia and Europe. Our company in Bulgaria, which was built as an energy hub
the region of Europe, former Soviet Union and Africa, except in
project for Belene NPP fulfills a similar volume of activity in the construction of
first nuclear power plant in Egypt and a new nuclear unit in Armenia. Also serve
engineering services for the programs for new nuclear plants in Czechia, Slovakia,
Slovenia, Poland, Russia, Italy, South Africa. And these are only significant nuclear
projects, then won an international open tender. Many of our
professionals are leading experts of the IAEA, recognized worldwide. The work
apply the most modern system of quality assurance in the realization
nuclear projects certified under the latter standard ISO 9001/2008 and
corresponding manuals for both systems for quality management
IAEA, and the standards of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Agency.
As an architect-engineer have done a tremendous job on the progress of NPP
Belene NPP, starting from the already mentioned research assistance
owner in the choice of technology and implementation, supervision of the preparatory
activities of the site review and analysis of technical design, etc. Special
I want to emphasize that the project for Belene NPP is the only project for a new
Nuclear power fully developed plan in which they reported all license
phases, regulatory requirements and relevant documentation. Those who work in
nuclear know how and extensive level of expertise required for
whole range of activities in which the Architect of Engineer is expected
responsible appraisal, further investigations in the field such as nuclear energy.
You will find a private investor to commit to funding
project, as this new ruling, and will there be market
electricity from Belene?
Dzhuritsa Tankosich:
No doubt that such an investor will be found. Literally days ago
CEZ announced a public tender to select a contractor for 2 blocks of nuclear
site at Temelin, with an option to order up to three additional nuclear reactors at
other parts of Europe. ENEL began with a feasibility study for EDF
building a nuclear power plant in Italy. Slovenia developed intensively for the next project
nuclear unit at the site of NPP truancy. Slovakia signed a contract for
completion of Units 3 and 4 of NPP Mochovce. In Romania is currently going
Competition for selection of consultant for construction of three to block the plant in Montenegro
Water Technology CANDU. In such a boom in the region, hardly anyone seriously
able to question the economic benefit of building a nuclear power plant in
Eastern Europe. The question is who will do this before, to include more
early in the growing scarce common regional market. Because the market will have this
energy that is produced with low cost and without CO2 emissions.
If you continue to be implemented without undue delay „Belene“ has a chance to
enter the number one operating competing facilities in the region and
provides electricity at the lowest price. At present, the Belene NPP is the first
both in terms of design and licensing status of work actually done
(contractor selected and mobilized, prepared and approved site agreed
equipment with a long production cycle), and in terms of
continuous elimination of risks to projects that reduce any
next stage, each invested with him in euros. Thanks to forward –
decision of the two previous governments for the timely launch of NPP
Belene NPP, there are still all conditions allowing to preserve it
advantage.
Only in this way Bulgaria will respond to the various national and regional
strategies and international expectations for this project. Because of
professionals in the industry are known to the enormous efforts that the European
Commission makes to accelerate the nuclear renaissance in Europe, the introduction of
recommendations for the selection of new projects, the requirements for uniformity
Safety review and approval by the Commission of new investment
intentions in this area.
In this regard I wish to emphasize that the investment plan for
construction of Belene NPP in selected technology with selected reactor grade
reliability and safety receives full approval from the European Commission
under the Euratom Treaty, EU Directives, which are part of
fundamental law of the Union. Moreover, in a recent communique
Laying down requirements for construction of new nuclear facilities
in the EU, the Belene project is listed as one of three examples
third-generation reactors in addition to projects in the Olkiluoto (Finland) and Flamanvil
(France) with the relevant recommendations in Europe to build such reactors only
degree of reliability and protection. I am proud that the team of Engineer as Architect
the team of NEK, Bulgaria, contributed significantly to the recognition that
Bulgarian nuclear power.
But to get back on funding: Yes, this will be found, because the NPP project
Telecommunications market remains attractive enough now. The big question is whether the State
ready to gift this to a private investment company without benefiting from
benefits for the Bulgarian economy and population. Whether when the crisis
pass and return to normal consumption, we will be more advantageous to
buy electricity from unregulated prices that investor, or by CEZ
Romania, for example? Because the ability to provide market
electricity from Belene nuclear power plant should be assessed not in terms of
current crisis and a heavy consumption but in the long term, subject to
occur after the release of it. And yet, if Bulgaria is ready to present to
entrepreneurs the benefits of carbon trading, and myself to pay fines
their heating?
More reasonable approach, and urged Prime Minister Traykov is the first to assess
careful cost-effectiveness and then to seek optimal
decision.
How much will it cost the taxpayer continued Bulgarian NPP Belene
for this year?
Dzhuritsa Tankosich:
The taxpayer – nothing. To continue to develop normally Belene NPP
in 2009 needed 320 million euros. Provided that these funds can be
provided as a loan, this is a project financing, which has no relation to
state budget.
Do you agree that money spent on Belene project “
stimulate mainly Russian, and not the Bulgarian economy?
Dzhuritsa Tankosich:
Let’s start with the well-known clause in the contract with IDS Atomstroyexport,
which provides up to 30% Bulgarian participation in activities related to engineering,
Delivery and construction, let’s add more to this about 25% share of Areva
and Siemens, ie far more than 2 billion euros for the remaining economies of EU countries.
Much more important is the fact that nuclear energy is the high tech industry with
large multiplier effect for Bulgaria. The project will undoubtedly lead to
substantial employment growth, additional benefits for the infrastructure
transport and communications, and the overall revitalization of the lot
backward economy in the region.
Do not forget that the activities of a number of foreign firms in the country during
construction brings additional benefits. Will give an example of our company.
Corporate taxes, which we imported into the coffers of Bulgaria for the last
3 years are about 4,5 million, of which only the amount for 2008 is 2,4 million BGN We
provide attractive employment and social packages of nearly 400 Bulgarian
engineers and specialists, which is more important to realize transfer
technology, which enables them to grow professionally. Our
professionals working on projects in USA, UK, Russia, Spain, Italy, India,
Mexico, South Africa, Ukraine, Serbia. The facts are clear – in a period of
contraction of world markets, the Bulgarian company to participate in WorleyParsons
over 30 projects for the provision of engineering services, mainly in
abroad and mainly through our specialists based in Sofia, ie we
successful „export“ services of our skilled staff and Bulgarian
resulting revenue back in the Bulgarian budget. When you consider that each
one of the biggest nuclear projects WorleyParsons is a value commensurate with the AEC
Belene NPP, and that about 60% of them are performed by experts in Bulgarian
company, consider yourself what are the benefits for Bulgaria, which are returned as
taxes in the country.