In principle, the logic of the enlargement of the euro is simple – you meet the Maastricht criteria can join the eurozone, which does not implement them can not. Short and clear, but only in theory.
Some Western countries in the eurozone were admitted without fulfilling the criteria – or through manipulation of statistics, or to circumvent the requirements or policy decision. In addition, even after the Eurozone countries have not fulfilled the criteria for membership. This is even more true in the current crisis.
At the same time, Bulgaria does almost all the Maastricht criteria and, if maintained a prudent policy would soon meet the last requirement – inflation. In other words, Bulgaria will soon meet all requirements for membership in the Eurozone.
Years are in a situation outside the eurozone countries are better prepared for membership than some countries in the Eurozone. Now we will go several steps further. We will have a situation where one country outside the euro area surpasses all the Maastricht criteria for eurozone. Therefore, given how unprepared nations have entered the eurozone, Bulgaria should be the ideal candidate and can readily enter the Eurozone?
Unfortunately, there seems to be so. Bulgaria has not even accepted in the exchange rate mechanism ERMII – which is like waiting for the euro. Entry into traditionally ERMII easy, it does not have criteria. However, Bulgaria was not even allowed in ERMII. What gets – Bulgaria behaves as a good student, ratified the Constitution, the Lisbon Treaty and any reasonable and unreasonable documents coming from Brussels, and in return get refused entry, even in the waiting room for the euro area.
Now a new test yet. Bulgaria once again attempted to enter the exchange rate mechanism ERMII, this time with a bulletproof argument that we are a country which meets the criteria for joining the euro, we are party to deal with the crisis without help from the IMF, we are a country which excels in indicators of stability many countries of the Eurozone.
If this situation in Bulgaria is again not allowed to ERMII, then obviously the rules in the EU are not the same for all. The Accession Treaty is written that Bulgaria has the right and obligation to join the Eurozone. But unless you qualify for the euro area, there is clearly a breach of contract, breach by the European institutions.
If they violate the contract and did not allow us to euro, why should I take them, why not introduce the euro alone? We can not accept the euro as unilaterally invoke the Treaty of Accession and the Maastricht criteria. Criteria are fulfilled, we take what we are entitled.
European institutions will not like this approach. They would prefer to wait years and decades, while giving us the favor for the Eurozone. But if you think a little deeper, you will understand that many mistakes.
First version – remain outside the eurozone, which reduces support for prudent economic policies. Some politicians will say – why do not reform, then there is no advantage and keep us here? In this case, the EU did not win because it creates another country to turn to populism and imprudence.
Second version – remain outside the euro area and do it yourself. Let us, however, imagine that 10-15 years d make more outside the euro area with prudent economic policies. Then, the credibility of the Bulgarian currency will become even higher than now and it will be impossible to convince voters to replace the euro on the euro. In other words, Bulgaria could become a new in Sweden or Britain and never entered the euro area. Of which European institutions ultimately will lose the most.
So – either we accept ERMII in the euro area and soon, or leave us alone to evroizirame. The other options are not good.