IMF and Bulgaria’s credit accounts

Recently, more and more intensively discuss whether Bulgaria needs a loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) or other global or European credit institution. While the need is questionable, many of the experts are edinonushni otherwise that in all cases, the IMF is interested in it to expand its financial geography.

It is recalled that at the beginning of March, Bloomberg agency published an analysis that the IMF may report a profit of 650 million dollars in 2010 due primarily allocated emergency loans to strapped countries in Eastern Europe.

Profits of the fund may even reach 1 billion dollars, only two years before the experts predicted that in 2010 the IMF will register a loss of 350 million dollars. Then again, analysts JPMorgan predrekoha that to be profitable fund must allocate at least 55 billion dollars of other countries from which to accrue interest on Treasury pooprazneniya the fund after the Asian economic crisis.

In connection with the report of the Royal Bank of Scotland from this week that the country needs 20 billion dollars funding Money.bg address Lachezar Bogdanov, makroikonomist in Industry Watch, and Georgi Angelov, senior economist at the Open Society Institute. Asked to comment on whether the global credit institutions intensify their lobby through various mechanisms, and thus seek to influence our country to reach by hand to finance the fund.

In all cases a bureaucratic interests of institutions like the Fund to a maximum of many places and are very active, said Lachezar Bogdanov. In his words, an assumption that the IMF and other international credit institutions intensify lobby through such research in the direction of this country to conclude a contract with them seems logical, but that is not how to understand without a more serious investigation. Bogdanov, who commented, and analysis of British bank RBS said that because we are small and not very popular in our place a small pot with other countries in which such government debt is 10 times higher than in Bulgaria. That in Bulgaria we are so poor, as for example in Malaysia prior to 10 years does not mean that the macroeconomic framework of the country during 2009 was commensurate with that of Thailand or Indonesia or Mexico prior to 15 years.

IMF has strategies for countries like Bulgaria, which fluctuate, but here we observe a transition of power, in turn, said Georgi Angelov. According to him by the Fund have drawn up a plan that works. The mere fact that they let a message that the economic downturn in our country will be higher than previously announced (within 7%), but it made all other countries, especially those who have taken money from the fund is indicative that they are targeting us, Angelov was categorical.

This is so because it look like those that can agree. Czech Republic or Estonia for example, as they are bombed with these forecasts is unlikely to be obranat to the IMF. Our country currently izlgezhda as takva where they can place a resource, and of good and we are paying to the fund, because you always coming back loans.

In the words of Anguelova certainly can talk about an expansive policy of the fund, which is aimed at our country. Evaluation of ikomista is that at present Bulgaria is positioned better than those countries who took loans from the IMF. For this data only for our country were published, while others remain hidden.

Another impression. IMF forecasts made in 4-5 weeks by the end of the year will likely come out a few more. Now it is important to be tackled in another way and we’re ready for the worst case scenario, not to expect external evaluations, which may be misleading. It is better they say we do not know, prepared for the worst obobshtama Angelov.

The size of the financing referred to in the report of the RBS (20 billion dollars) economists agree that there is no real need takva because government debt of the total external debt is very low. And the rest is internal or domestic bank debt.

To expect that a parent bank to withdraw their emergency duties and even the cost of failure of its subsidiary, borders on insanity. The same is true for large international companies that are for some reason your business financed through a loan rather than through a capital increase. To assume that these creditors will stamped on the table and say, or pay at maturity or you announced in your nesastyatelnost and eradication is irrational, said Bogdanov.

Both economists – Angelov and Bogdanov, united around the idea that those who make forecasts for Bulgaria from the various banks and institutions rarely know well in our particular situation. Georgi Angelov was even more emphatic. He said that some institutions put the most junior and inexperienced officers responsible for our country. Furthermore, they are still involved with at least 15-20 other countries. While countries such as Russia, Brazil, China paid work goals, not just one expert.

Bulgaria may make this next year without outside help, having zategne budget policy and reduce znachitelnorazhodi. This is drugataprognoza, around which were also a story of two economists. In their loan from the IMF or other institution would allow a negative signal to international investors.

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