China’s economy and experts of Merrill Lynch

China convince experts that the economy recovers. The latest information about the pace of recovery so smitten experts Banc of America – Merrill Lynch, they have improved their forecast for GDP growth in the country. China’s economy despite serious enough rolling speed of its growth, or once during the entire crisis is not receiving a forecast of GDP fall in the red zone, said last month Interfaks.S any estimates only improve. After the official bodies and experts povlyakoha foot. Banc of America – Merrill Lynch improve prediction of growth of GDP of China in 2009 from 8 percent to 8.7 percent. Independent analysts believe such news favorable to investors prefer to invest in shares of companies from mainland China, the publication reported MarketWatch. Recently published economic statistics „convinced in the reality of the market recovery in China, noted in the analytical report of Merrill economist Lu Tin. „Definitely time our forecast for GDP growth in 2009 of 8% was the most optimistic of the existing and even be considered contradictory and unfounded. What changes only for two quarters! Recent statistics show that China exceeded our expectations, „he said. According to new estimates of Merrill Lynch, China’s GDP will grow by 9.2 percent during the third quarter of 2009 and 11.3 percent in the fourth quarter. Evaluation of growth next year was increased from 9.6% to 10.1%. Earlier it was reported that the GDP of China, the third-largest in the world, grew in the second quarter of 2009 by 7.9 percent compared with same period last year first quarter increase in GDP reached 6.1 percent. Industrial production has increased in June by 10.7% compared to the like period last year against a growth of 8.9 percent in May. Experts expect further acceleration in the rate of growth of Chinese economy in the second half. Chinese government says it intends to soon bring GDP growth to 8 percent, which would enable the country to avoid the growth of unemployment and social unrest. To achieve this, China announced a program last fall in the amount of yuana 4 trillion / 585 billion dollars, which helped restore the growth of Chinese economy to support the neighboring country exporters. Antikrizisni package of measures primarily include investments in the development of agriculture, health and infrastructure of the country. Furthermore, the PRC TSB five times since the beginning of September declined bank rate, but also drawn a number of measures to stimulate exports. Interest in China are at the lowest level for the past 4 years. Virtually all economists agree that this year should not be expected to change the price of lending. People’s Bank of China will raise interest rates a little later, probably in 2010 against the backdrop of the expected recovery is the country’s economy. I love to uchudva China. At the end of June 2009 gold and currency reserves of China increased compared with the same period of 2008 to 17.84% and reached 2.13 trillion dollars. In the second quarter of 2009 they increased by 177.9 billion dollars, with which 23 times exceeded the amount of increase of gold and currency reserves in the first quarter of the year, local media noted. This means that the leg after a period of instability of gold and currency reserves of the country have returned to accelerated growth. Gold and currency reserves of the PRC will increase by at least 200 billion dollars annually in subsequent years, consider economist of UBS AG Van Tao. GDP growth of China in 2009 will be 8 percent, and experts predict by the State Information Center of the PRC (the authority is not subordinate to the State Committee of the PRC for the development and reform). The message was published by local media. Experts believe that deflation in China for 2009 will be 0.5 percent, then producer prices will fall by 5 percent. According to the experts, the Chinese import and export in 2008 will shrink by 16 percent and 17.5 percent respectively. Positive balance of foreign trade balance of the PRC at the end of the year will be 220 billion dollars. In 2008 this indicator was equal to 295.5 billion dollars. At the same time, the communication stresses that China will need to introduce additional measures to maintain the economy. Otherwise think of the International Monetary Fund. The Board of Directors of the IMF declared itself in favor of new steps to stimulate economic growth in China by the government. Part of directors declared, as stated in the notice of the Fund to further enhance the course of yuana, characterized in that some of his course as „significantly underestimated. But this opinion is not reached unanimously, while the earlier IMF and leading Western countries, is announced for revalvatsiya Chinese currency.

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