Election Week

Last week proved to steamroller triple coalition, which is gone. Bulgaria Wait spectacular changes, at least according to the promises that have begun to wallow in Sunday. We got word that the government will be formed by June 27, which means that it will from the beginning of July will launch a total revision of the office done by Stanishev.

Worldwide G-8 did try to izmadri measures to prevent a new economic crisis, oil, or rather the movement of its price down to scare investors and political leaders and traditional conflicting forecasts for the economy in no case seknaha . IMF presented its vision for the next global economy by the end of the year and next, and ECOFIN decided that Europe has beat the „free fall“, despite the desperate statistics.
This is going to balance my week. The next will be even more fierce political, economic and filled with loose pending which will govern the next, to determine where we go in the next four years.
Trust vote: under the sign of Boyko Borisov
Expected for all Emblem won the parliamentary elections. Suddenly all was reported record electoral activity against the background of local and national elections in recent years. So party broke Borisov BSP. A NMS fell in six deaf. Triple coalition of DPS was only thanks to the power interests electorate, but it waits grievous battle, at least so it seems from the threat of our future prime minister.
The sharp turn right management means total change in the macroeconomic framework. First step: review the budget. Second step: the conclusion of the precautionary agreement with the IMF. Third step: applying for evrochakalnyata.
With the victory zavalyaha and requests your office to go: to stop the political appointments in the 12’s five minutes, and to temporarily froze work on some of the big energy projects in order to examine and evaluate.
Zaspryagaha and names the new cabinet, as are clear only two ministers: Simeon Dyankov – Finance and Tsvetan Tsvetanov, which bears the Ministry of Interior. Waiting to spectacular reductions in administration, will be closed for at least three ministries – the disasters of the administration of European Affairs, as the post of Commissioner Meglena Plugchiev – Deputy Prime EU funds belonging and its administration. The new ruling is zakaniha and traditional MRF area – agriculture.
In the first week after Borisov victory even before prime to head government, and created his first gaffe. He proud owner of a garland, announced that the European Commission awards because we clearly demonstrated a desire to change our unlock frozen SAPARD money. Given the cumbersome administrative procedures in Brussels, it seems that Borisov is based on thin ice. Today he crannied. Michael Mann, spokesperson of Commissioner Mariann Fischer Boyle, responsible for agriculture and rural development, denied a decision to unblock the funds. We continue to work to verify information received last month from Bulgaria and I can not give a date when the money can be unblock added Mann.
Despite Sapard iztsepka-ment, however, by the European Commission vote on deep trust and support and rely Emblem to take more effective measures to combat corruption.
CITUB already given 100 days of the new government to adopt antikrizisna program and take action on changing some laws including the Constitution. How many days will need a prime minister, however, make slip number 2? Only hope it is not of such dimensions and to fulfill their promises to their constituencies.
Economic shocks
Once the budget in the red earth at the end of May, which, despite the delay of the Ministry of Finance with the disclosure of data is seen in early July, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) us happy „with his black next forecast. Fund forecast a decline in gross domestic product (GDP) by 7 percent this year and 2.5 percent next year. Update the decline was twice as large compared to the previous estimate of the fund, which presage collapse of the Bulgarian economy by 3.5 percent in 2009.
This increased speculation and famous for loans from international financial institutions, rumors about negotiations occurred and they deny MF, while the German press did not talk today, it will go pangara together with Croatia and Macedonia.
A dispute about the need for credit in our country is yet to be hot: on the one hand is the hole in the budget outlay for ungird of the old government and the lack of antikrizisna program, on the other – the taxpayer to be curves X years, when the loan back. That’s everything you have and the positive and negative sides. Without a tightening of belts, however, the IMF does not suit in any case. With the tightening of the car could (not) us out.
Bourgas nights
In the late afternoon of July 9 was held to discuss another project unfortunate for the Burgas-Alexandroupolis oil pipeline. The discussions for and against the tube followed after the conclusion of the agreement for construction of the facility in 2007 most ecologists have a strong resistance, which sounded the alarm over the lack of provisions for the protection of the Black Sea from accidents and incidents in the agreement between countries and the allocation of liability for any accidents.
Because of the disputed economic benefits of oil and other energy projects is likely to be stopped, which was enshrined in the platform of the Blue coalition. Because of the huge loans ceased construction of Belene NPP could become a greater disaster for the Bulgarian taxpayer, but in view of the possible involvement of the blue in our future coalition government stopped work on the Burgas-Alexandroupolis could happen.
Given the negative feedback and the municipalities of Burgas, Sozopol, Pomorie and Nessebar, announced that the technology against „mono buy (bel. line. – Unloading of tankers at sea, water, and directly through shlangove discharge in the tube) creating a huge risk of accidents and spills, obstacles to the project are endless.
Only one is not clear: Where is the line between concern for ecological balance and the private interests of citizens seeking monetary compensation for their land. Fair is sought to be adequately met, but if you really expert evaluations show that the interest of the country is greater, then who should make a compromise? Probably, however, that the project needs a revision because of some contentious issues caused by previous management to make clear the risks. At least as far as possible.
Evrosram, shame sraaam … again!
Once in Brussels in November reznaha us 220 million euros under PHARE, we must samokorigirame. Meglena Plugchiev stated that the proposal of Deputy Finance Minister Dimitar Ivanovski will make before drawing up a new government.
Meglena Plugchiev expected decision Ivanovski on the exact amount you’ll lose, and only then will declare it and comment. And because of the likelihood to receive a negative assessment by the European Commission for the management and control systems of EU money, and to observe the three-year period for making payments and implementation of projects and can forget about for another 1.2 billion euros. And if this is not proof that Bulgaria is the biggest precedent in the EU?
Establishment of a university professor of Redfordskiya U.S. is that Belarus, juicy one of the poorest countries in Eastern Europe is more developed in Europe from Bulgaria and Romania in 2007 left us only to see if the new government will justify European confidence vote.
G-8: On the western front, nothing new
Risks to the global economy have not yet passed. And because the fight was started, it May not remained more options than spending more on economic incentives (at least in the U.S. and China ???). Reasonable conclusion is before taking new measures, after waiting for the impact of current economic programs. Because budget deficits are not samopokrivat and ominous swell.
Discussions on the idea of a new global currency was (not) elegantly bypassed, although France and Germany joined the clamor nadadeniya in China. But while Europe you from Podnebesnata relaxed tone. Because they saw that the ruble will hit in May of ax yuana if you move to the regional reserve currencies.
On greenhouse emissions, the best 8 will pursue a reduction to 80% compared to 2050 levels by 1990 to increase global average temperature did not exceed 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels. Rather distant prospect, given that by 2050 there will be a global rearrangement of forces and, possibly, a change in priorities.
However, the G-8 will pay billions of dollars for development of agriculture in an effort to reverse the policy of food aid to support farming. Objective: food security. Apparently the food crisis of last year is done.
In this respect, the European milk producers also have achieved something: EC would submit to their hand, subsidize the preservation of non-oil market because of low purchase prices. Remains, however, a dispute with milk quotas.
Europe emerged from the crisis? Not quite …
According ECOFIN „free fall“ of the economies of the countries of the community is under control and there are indications of gradual recovery. IMF is the pessimistic set it is hoped, the recession in the 27 and the euro will not leave before 2010 outlining most black prospects for Germany.
The truth probably … is out there. Development of the crisis because no expert can not give an accurate prediction, so are reviewed monthly by the experts and institutions. The fact, however: Eurostat confirmed record drop in gross domestic product (GDP) of EU-16 countries using the euro. However, further incentives to the Old Continent will be. Because of the deficit. 3%. Brussels cut off.
In this regard, the governments of the Member States of the European Union will offer today contraction of the Community budget for 2010 by around 600 million euros. Most is spent on stimulating the growth and measures against unemployment. Perhaps most notably there is very cut.
General Motors (not) dead
Emblematic avtokompaniya, pillar of the U.S. economy and the „pillar of the world, today came out of bankruptcy procedure. Closure of this case will mark the end of an unprecedented process that the U.S. government undertook to maintain so important for the U.S. economy and General Motors Kraysler. The latter came out of bankruptcy procedure months before, having control over production was taken over by Fiat.
Majority state participation, however, hidden ponamirisva of nationalization. Although the government announced plans to sell 60 percent share after stabilization of detroytskiya large. However, this happens as a cover mnogomiliardni losses combat ever-creative competition, and making correct business decisions. A ridiculous like ricksha, which was „invented“ in the process of preparation of rapid restructuring, the top head of the stupid ones, prepared by the magazine „Forchan. Success of General Motors!
Waiting and final denouement of the saga Opel. This week there was news on the topic.
Oil
to scare investors and manufacturers. After stabilizing around 80 dollars per barrel, the price of black gold zabuksuva and reported a sharp drop to around 60 dollars. This caused stress in the Arab world, which is just pouspokoiha umopomrachavashtoto after reduction of prices to below $ 30 per barrel and dusting of tears because of long lost. „Awoke“ and analysts who warned again what has influence on the material world and how „wrong“ movements of the figures may dozakopayat already shaky business. This proves that the world markets, and hence – and the world economy is still fragile, so optimism aside, security – first.

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Miglena Ivanova, expert.bg

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