Germany will remain a long economic bottom

German Institute for Economic Research / technologies / Berlin pozaglushi hope to recent economic upswing. Indeed in many countries like the U.S. and China see signs of a reduction of tensions, but real progress on the horizon is not defined. German economy will shrink in the current year by 6.4 percent and next year will mark a minimum height of about half a percent.
Germany – case
Why Germany will remain special for a long economic bottom explains Christian Dreger, chief of the department to cyclical technologies:
„Germany needs a strong impetus from the global economy in order to take on increasing quotas for export. Things are, however, such as: the markets are present, but these are markets that will come out of the crisis relatively attenuated. What is important for Germany, the situation in Central and Eastern Europe. These countries will come more slowly from the crisis, and this, of course, will continue to hinder exports.
For the recovery of German exports is particularly important not to spread protectionism practiced by some countries. There are other unpredictable factors that will accompany the technologies under German economy during its long economic decline: for example it is not ruled out the possibility of a shortage of credit, banks continue to restrict the loans granted by them.
If the government concept of „bad banks“ continue to operate it as a last resort, the state will need to provide banks with equity, ie to intervene more strongly in the financing of the economy. Cyclical packages also have the desired effect entirely. Instead of specific investment would have more effect in the medium term developments planned programs and programs for economic growth.
Furthermore, should not be forgotten that the economic crisis has not yet reached the German labor market. Despite the shortage of orders from the crisis shake branches retain their staff well-trained professionals who oskapyava production:
„On the other hand naturally and helps that country with incentives for short-time subsidy for an interim measure, that there is wishful thinking. If the crisis continues, it will lead to a significant increase in unemployment,“ says the president of the Institute Berlin Klaus Zimmermann.
Unemployment and budget deficit
The estimate of technologies for the coming year contains an average 4.7 million unemployed in the country. And contrary to widespread views unemployment will affect mainly the powerful sectors such as automotive or metal. However the German economy, it still remains a reliable engine: personal consumption. For the Germans, despite the crisis continue to actively shop.
However, we dramatically increased costs of the state will inevitably lead to a record budget deficit. According to Klaus Zimmermann threat of a long stay on the economic bottom obozrim without end and, at best, only the prospect of climbing a small economic halmcheta.

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