How long will the economy goes down

The decline of the Bulgarian economy continues to grow, but it remains considerably more modest in magnitude compared to a lot of member countries of the EU. Continued decline of the world’s leading economies, but its speed is slowing and in some countries are registered and growth. Although announced by the G-20 victory over the global economic crisis – has deterred fears a sharp fall of global activity and stabilized the financial markets is premature to determine the economic situation as optimistic. The speed of recovery will follow the speed of changing the behavior of each type of economic actors – governments and international institutions, financial institutions and companies, households and nonprofit organizations.
In these conditions, the Bulgarian economy will continue to move down to the bottom of this, probably in the first half of next year. Around this opinion is united almost all analysts. According to them, the reduction in GDP for the fourth quarter and throughout 2009 will be around 5%. Slower growth can be expected until the second or third quarter of next year.

Power
The reduction of gross domestic product in the country for the second quarter was slightly lower than some expectations. NSI preliminary data it estimated at 4.9 percent for the quarter and 4.2% for half an annual basis. Compared with the first quarter from the production of GDP is seen positive changes in the industry and the deterioration in the agricultural sector and in services. Although the deterioration in the industry continued in the second quarter, the decline is slowing. It was 7.2% with 12.4% for the first quarter. Decline in the agricultural sector has increased to 6.3% after 4.8% in the first quarter.
Sector services, although continued to grow during the second quarter, increasing its slow growth – up 1.4%. The decline in domestic demand, which is deepened by 9.1 percent for the first of 13.3 percent for the second quarter, continues to slowdown determined by the final use of GDP. Reducing investment accelerated slightly – to 16.3% at 14% in the first quarter. However the fall in household consumption has slowed slightly to 5.6% at 6% for the first quarter.
Stabilization
Short-term data on the real economy of our main external partners and our half-year since begun to stabilize. In the euro area since the June monthly dynamics of the orders in the manufacturing industry is already rising and industrial production fluctuated around the same level. These data are grounds to expect further delays to the decline in GDP for this group of countries, respectively, improving the external environment for the Bulgarian economy is likely to be felt more significantly in the country early next year, say analysts from the Center for Economic razvitie.Spored their foreign direct investments this year will reach 3.5-4 billion EUR. Year 2010 will be the lowest FDI inflows of recent years, their level will likely fall to 2.5-3 billion EUR. Inflation for 2009 will remain below 1%. Retention of consumer prices in the country will continue to affect the low international prices and consequently lower prices of domestic producers but also the lack of pressure from domestic demand. Internal and external factors in the absence of inflationary pressures will continue to operate throughout 2009
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Unemployment will continue to increase in future as a result of the restructuring of employment in construction and services. Assessment expert registered unemployment rate will peak by around 9-9.5% in the winter of 2009-2010, then it will remain around this level and will start to fall, albeit more slowly, with the expected in the second half next year the recovery of growth in the economy.

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