Phantom of the economic recovery

While international banks do not stop to argue that it started out of the crisis leading economists portend that the world may be rocked by a second wave of economic downturn.
At the end of last week, executives from the world’s central banks gathered for their annual symposium in Jackson hole Mountain Resort, Wyoming. Against the backdrop of the Rockies bankers discussed how far has led financial and economic crisis. Symposium of loud titles jumped upcoming end of the recession. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Barnanke the United States said: „The prospect of a return to growth in the very near future are good. Barnanke added, however, that recovery will be slow and difficult, and unemployment will remain high for at least another year. Attendees of the symposium chairman of the European Central Bank Jean-Claude Trichet also insisted that despite the incentive signals far from the world returned to normalcy. “

Is there a risk of a second crisis?
Relative stabilization of financial markets and slow project the real economy from the bottom of the crisis gave the basis of bankers and economists to talk more optimistically. News appeared recently to revive the economies of France and Germany have become a sort of „evidence“ for the positive development of things. Among economists have a consensus that the recession is ending, that the world economy will soon begin to grow again, and that there is no risk of a second crisis.
But not all agree. Line leading economists in the U.S. are pessimistic. The main reason for these attitudes is the state of U.S. markets. Analysts by the Wall Street Journal shows that consumption in the United States remains very low, unemployment is rising, and at least 300 American banks are in danger of falling off.
Some analysts go even further in their forecasts. Nuri Rubin, a U.S. economist who predicted the current crisis back in 2005, is now forecasting that the world is facing a recession before the second. „Contrary to prevailing opinion, we are convinced that there is risk of a second recession, there are forces which – if not taken care of – can lead to a recession by the end of next year or later in the year 2011, said in Rubies announcement of the forecast for the world economy it created a network analyst RGE Monitor. He argues that the relative stabilization of world markets and exchanges ahead of improving the real economy, which will inevitably lead to an adjustment of forecasts.
Blanchard: Too early to hope
Rubies also believes that the financial system is profoundly impaired. Lack of sufficient credit would stifle long-term private consumption and investment. As the echo of sounds Rubies IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard, who said the financial system in developed countries is impaired. According to Blanchard proceeds of external capital in developing economies, Eastern unlikely to recover in the near future. And that significantly reduces the chances of stabilizing the real economy.
Before the crisis, 70 percent of world production is consumed in the U.S. market. But the global crisis changing structure of demand and consumption. Economists say the U.S. will fail to return to its old level of consumption. This will keep the economy on the bottom for some time. In its latest analysis of the IMF’s chief economist points out that the recovery will be extremely delicate task. Is too early to hope, says Blanchard and adds: „The crisis left deep traces, which for a long time will affect industrial production and consumption.“

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