Off in 2011: The crisis is normalized

The crisis is normalized
Full recovery of the banking sector in Eastern Europe will take time, but it will not affect long-term development of the credit business in the region, says a new analysis of UniKreditGrup.
The banking sector in Central and Eastern Europe will likely recover fully until 2011, writes in his new report UniKreditGrup, the largest credit institute in the western region. Here’s what he told reporters in the Austrian capital Vienna Gidzoni Federico, head for Eastern Europe of Bank Austria, which is part of UniKreditGrup: „The opinion of UniCredit for Central and Eastern Europe remains positive, despite the fact that in 2009 was, as we know, many difficult year. Today we can say that what many fear, namely a catastrophic one, systematic crisis is gone. Now we talk about normal economic crisis associated with global and region, which anyway show good levels of stability and strength. “

There will be a recession in 2010
At different speeds up
Central European countries like Poland, Czechia and Slovakia have a better chance for rapid recovery from UniKreditGrup think. In contrast, Southeast Europe and the Baltic countries will fail to combat the recession and in 2010. For Bulgaria the Bank predicts GDP – 2.5 percent next year, but expects more in 2011 it went up to + 2%.
As a consequence of the tentative recovery companies in crisis, UniCredit analysts expected in the next 12 months, 8 percent loan growth in the region, after they fell to -5% this year. The amount of deposits will also rise. In Bulgaria, the volume of loans will rise to even modest 3% in 2011 will reach 8%. UniCredit forecasts for Bulgaria and the increase in deposits – next year they will grow by 4% and in 2011 – with 9%.
Shifts in the banking market
UniKreditGrup not exclude shifts in the banking sector in Central and Eastern Europe. Great Western credit institutions, investment in the region will not abandon their positions there, but this is not true for all players Gidzoni said and explained: „We expect some local banks in difficulties due to capital constraints. It is also possible some international banks with very little presence in the area or decide to quit or to invest more, „says Gidzoni. It is said that Spanish credit institutions are watching with more interest in the banking sector in Eastern Europe.

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Julia Damianova, Deutsche Welle